Thursday, September 23, 2026 - This year’s powerful El Niño could lead to an estimated 451,000 additional heat-related deaths compared with a normal year, according to a new projection from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.
Researchers say the warming pattern could push global land temperatures about 1.2°C above normal in the coming months and produce significantly more extremely hot days, adding pressure to communities already vulnerable to extreme weather.
The greatest impacts are projected across the Global South. The Sahel region could see about 66,800 additional heat-related deaths, including an estimated 31,400 in Nigeria, 17,500 in Sudan, 10,000 in Niger and 8,000 in Chad.
Southeast Asia could record tens of thousands of additional deaths, while India is projected to see about 15,800 and Brazil about 13,300. The figures are projections comparing expected deaths during the El Niño period with a typical year, rather than confirmed fatalities.
The findings are adding urgency to preparations as forecasters expect El Niño to intensify later this year.
Researchers say governments and humanitarian organisations can reduce the impact through early heat warnings, cooling centres, hydration stations, stronger health-system capacity and protections for people working in extreme heat.
The projections are intended to identify areas where rapid action could help prevent avoidable deaths as temperatures rise.
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