Saturday, June 13, 2026 - Ukraine said it reclaimed more of its territory than it lost during May, reversing a Russian trend of monthly net gains. The territorial shift comes amid a broader military push where Ukraine says its "lockdown" strategy is successfully disrupting frontline Russian supply lines.
“The ratio of liberated and lost territories is almost 100
square kilometres (40 square miles) in our favour,” wrote Ukrainian
commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii on his Telegram messaging channel.
Ukrainian defence news outlet Militarnyi estimated net gains
slightly higher, at 120 square kilometers (46 square miles), citing sources
within the military. Militarnyi said Russia seized 130 square kilometers (50
square miles) and lost 250 square kilometers (100 square miles) during the
month.
Meanwhile, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of
War (ISW) assessed Ukrainian gains higher still, stating that Russia had seized
or infiltrated 40 square kilometers (15 square miles) in May but lost control
of about 280 square kilometers (108 square miles).
The ISW’s assessments suggest Ukrainian gains are growing,
following a similar trend in April when it estimated Moscow’s gains at 28
square kilometers (11 square miles) of Ukrainian land against losses of 116
square kilometers (45 square miles). Syrskii noted that Ukraine has reclaimed a
total of 600 square kilometers (230 square miles) during the first five months
of 2026.
However, Russia found success on one part of the front.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces
had advanced into eastern Konstiantynivka, the southernmost of a “fortress
belt” of four cities in the eastern region of Donetsk. Russian forces first
infiltrated parts of the city last October and now hold about 13 percent of it,
according to the ISW.
Capturing the remaining one-fifth of Donetsk remains a
stated priority for Russian President Vladimir Putin, though multiple set
deadlines to achieve this have been missed.
Amid the territorial shifts, potential lines of
communication have emerged. Although Putin publicly rejected a call from
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for direct talks on June 5, Zelenskyy
stated he met with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who has been acting as an
intermediary for the Kremlin.
Ukraine attributes its recent battlefield achievements to a targeted strategy
of disrupting Russian supply lines by striking fuel and ammunition in
warehouses and in transit.
“The logistical lockdown is working,” said Ukrainian Defence
Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. “The number of hits on enemy targets at a distance
of over 50km (30 miles) from the (frontline) has doubled,” he noted, comparing
May to April. Syrskii put the May total at almost 2,000 strikes.
The effects of this long-range interdiction strategy have
begun to build up significantly in the south. Weeks of attacks in the southern
regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia reduced Russian military traffic by more than
70 percent along the M-14 motorway, the main east-west route, according to
Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces. On June 7,
regional authorities prohibited traffic along the M-14 highway altogether.
The closure of the M-14 forced Russian planners to reroute
supplies via Crimea using the E105 and E97 highways. However, Ukraine
subsequently struck a bridge carrying the E105 over the Chonhar Strait, leaving
only the E97 passable. Soon after, as a convoy of roughly 50 Russian fuel and
ammunition trucks rerouted to the E97, Ukrainian forces ambushed and destroyed
a portion of them at Armyansk, commander Dmitry Filatov told Suspilne Radio.
Filatov explained that this operation would not have been
possible if other units had not struck at Mariupol and the road to Berdyansk.
He noted that those mainland disruptions are precisely what forced the units
stationed in the Hulyaipil direction to be supplied via Crimea instead of the
usual Mariupol highways
Civilians and military infrastructure in Crimea have faced
severe fuel shortages as a result of the logistics strikes, worsening
dramatically over the week. On June 7, Sevastopol occupation governor Mikhail
Razvozhaev rationed fuel to 20 litres per car per day, later tightening the
restriction to 20 litres per week.
The supply crunch is reportedly forcing troop movements. The
Ukrainian underground group Atesh, which operates in Crimea, reported that
Russian units were abandoning their positions on the Kinburn Spit due to
depleted food and fuel reserves.
Brovdi told Reuters that the ultimate goal is to create
conditions under which it will be extremely difficult for military personnel
and defence industry workers to remain in Crimea, or to use any of the transit
routes leading to the temporarily occupied territories
While Russia’s air force continues to command the skies over
eastern Ukraine using large aerial ordnance, Ukraine’s figures suggest its
drone production and deployment have provided an effective counterweight.
Ukrainian short- and medium-range drones hit 180,000 targets in May, a 12.7
percent increase over April.
Ukrainian air defenses are also reporting higher success
rates against Russian Shahed loitering munitions using specialized interceptor
drones. Although Russia launched 25 percent more Shaheds in May compared to
April, interceptions increased by 50 percent to roughly 4,000, according to
Fedorov.
The defense ministry expects further efficiency once a new
generation of interceptor drones that automates 95 percent of the interception
process enters full production.
Beyond these mid-range operations, Ukraine has sustained a
long-range strike campaign targeting Russian refineries, oil depots, and
offloading terminals deep within Russian territory, impacting domestic refining
capacity and export revenues.
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