Friday, April 10, 2026-Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price outlook for the remainder of 2026, signaling a shift toward lower near-term expectations while warning that risks remain heavily skewed to the upside. The bank cut its second-quarter forecasts, citing easing geopolitical tensions and early signs that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to recover.
Under the updated projections, Brent crude is now expected to average around $90 per barrel in Q2—down from $99—while U.S. crude (WTI) is seen at $87, reduced from $91. However, Goldman left its longer-term outlook largely unchanged, forecasting Brent at $82 in Q3 and $80 in Q4, suggesting a gradual stabilization if current conditions hold.
Despite the downward revision, the bank emphasized that the market remains highly vulnerable to disruption. Analysts warned that if the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran collapses or supply losses persist, oil prices could surge sharply—potentially reaching $115 per barrel later in the year.
The message from Goldman Sachs is clear: while immediate pressure on oil prices has eased, the market is still one geopolitical shock away from another spike. For investors, the outlook is no longer about stability—it’s about navigating a fragile balance between temporary relief and persistent risk.
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