Thursday, March 12, 2026-A new forecast from JPMorgan Chase is drawing major attention in global energy markets, warning that the conflict involving Iran could dramatically shift the next move in oil prices. Analysts say escalating military tensions and attacks on energy infrastructure are creating a risk scenario where crude prices could surge far beyond current levels if the conflict disrupts supplies across the region.
JPMorgan’s commodities team says the biggest risk centers on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints. Roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments pass through the narrow waterway each day. If tanker traffic is significantly reduced or blocked due to military activity, the bank warns oil prices could spike toward $120–$130 per barrel, a level that would quickly ripple through global markets and inflation.
At the same time, JPMorgan analysts caution that the spike may not last forever. In their longer-term outlook, they still expect global oil supplies to recover and potentially push prices back toward the $50–$60 range by 2026 if production stabilizes and geopolitical tensions ease. The bank says the current surge is largely driven by risk premiums tied to war and supply fears rather than long-term structural shortages.
For investors and governments, the message is clear: the path of the Iran conflict could determine oil’s next major move. A wider regional escalation could trigger a dramatic price surge, while a quick resolution could send energy markets sharply lower once the geopolitical risk premium fades.
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