Wednesday, March 11, 2026-Political scientist Francis Fukuyama argues that Iran is unlikely to surrender despite mounting pressure from the United States and its allies. According to Fukuyama, the Iranian leadership views the current confrontation as existential and tied to national sovereignty, making capitulation politically and ideologically impossible.
He suggests that Iran’s political system is structured in a way that rewards resistance to foreign pressure rather than compromise. Even severe economic strain, military losses, or diplomatic isolation may strengthen the regime’s narrative that it is defending the country against outside domination.
Fukuyama warns that expecting a quick Iranian collapse or surrender misunderstands the country’s political dynamics. Instead, the conflict could become prolonged, with Iran choosing endurance and escalation rather than backing down.
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