House rating changes following TN‑7 special, plus updates on Indiana redistricting and the overall House map

Thursday, December 4, 2025 -After the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, the rating for the seat has been revised. What was recently considered “Likely Republican” is now classified as “Safe Republican,” following Republican Matt Van Epps’s 54%–45% win.

Meanwhile, in Indiana lawmakers have floated a new congressional map that would — if adopted — make Republicans favored in all nine districts. The proposal, still in flux pending a vote in the state Senate, could reshape representation and significantly widen the GOP’s advantage.

On the national level, recent redistricting efforts have had a broad effect: the number of “super-safe” districts, as well as deeply competitive ones, has decreased. Instead, the middle of the map is expanding — with more districts now rated as modestly favorable to one party or another. This shift could make next year’s elections more dependent on turnout, candidate quality, and campaign strategy.