Thursday, November 13, 2025 -Global demand for oil and gas is projected to continue rising through 2050, according to the IEA’s latest “Current Policies Scenario.”
Under this scenario, oil consumption could reach about 113 million barrels per day by mid-century—an increase of roughly 13% compared with 2024 levels. At the same time, natural-gas demand is also expected to grow, driven by rising electricity and industrial needs in emerging markets.
The outlook marks a notable shift for the IEA, which in previous years had anticipated a sooner peak in fossil-fuel demand thanks to the expansion of renewables and electric vehicles.
This time, the agency explicitly states that its projections are based on current government policies only—not on more ambitious climate-target scenarios. In consequence, the report concludes that the world is very likely to miss key emissions and warming targets unless policy frameworks change significantly.
For policymakers and investors, the implications are clear: the energy transition may not be happening as fast as assumed—and oil and gas markets could remain robust for decades.
That suggests sustained demand could support ongoing investment in fossil-fuel infrastructure, while raising questions about how the world will meet its climate goals under evolving demand patterns. Countries, companies, and financial markets alike may need to re-assess risk, strategy, and timelines.
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